Pre-Midterm Madness 2018
Politically speaking this week has been a difficult one for Conservatives. The combination of the Manafort conviction and Cohen testimony coming within roughly 24 hours of each other was a one-two punch to the gut that has, for the moment, knocked the wind out of us. Though we saw the punch of Manafort’s conviction coming, the Cohen testimony seems to have caught quite a few people off guard.
Is this just a momentary distraction? Time will be the judge of that. However, to those Conservatives who are quick to point out these two events have nothing to do with Russian Collusion or President Trump, I would caution you to not so quickly dismiss their impact.
Democrats and Republicans will hold their grounds and no votes will be swayed by the events of this week. The same cannot be said for Independent voters. A Wall Street Journal article published yesterday referenced a polling of Independents showing they are moving to the Left regarding which party they would like to see control Congress after the 2018 elections. In that poll Independent voters favored Democrats over Republicans by 22-percentage points, up from an 8-percentage point advantage from earlier in the year.
I’m no statistician but a 14-point swing is nothing to scoff at or ignore.
Labor Day Weekend, the unofficial start to the mid-term election cycle, is now less than two weeks away. The timing of these events can be either a blessing or a curse for Republicans. The blessing being that they have time to diffuse the situation and drive the narrative towards things that matter. The economy, low unemployment ratings, immigration reform, border security, preserving the tax cuts and continuing to do right by our military and veterans. The curse being that it brings back to the forefront the Democrats favorite talking point – impeachment.
Though I do not believe either of these to be high crimes and misdemeanors they will, none the less, fuel the calls from the Left for the next few days to come. For many on the Left their dislike of President Trump is so strong that impeachment is a delicious morsel on which they love to chew. Which begs the question many have already been asking long before this week began. Is simply being “anti-Trump” enough for the Democrats to win the midterms or do they need an actual message for their campaign? A message that, as of now, has yet to manifest itself and unify the party.
In the end the party that controls the narrative moving into and beyond September 3rd will ultimately be the party to win the midterms. The narrative will motivate voters, especially the Independent voters, to show up and cast their ballot. Though historically the mid-term elections have been lost by the party in power, the sense among Conservatives is that this election cycle carries weight. The concern being that the progress made thus far could, and likely would, be undone should Congress turn blue. The Democrats also believe this midterm cycle carries weight, but as far as I can tell only in so much as it pertains to the ability to bring forth articles of impeachment as mentioned earlier.
From my seat I have little faith in polls since the ones in 2016 were so off base. The noise coming from both sides of the isle is more of the same droning that has been taking place for much of the year. The same can be said of the Main Stream Media as well – so I say toss a quarter and you’ll have just as good a chance at predicting the winner of this year’s mid-terms as anybody else.
But that doesn’t excuse you from voting, though!